Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Dalton SchultzReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 16
Texans vs. Browns
Right now, Dalton Schultz’s receiving yards prop is set at 31.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 31.5 (-110) after it opened @ 33.5 (-114).
Pros
- This game’s line implies a passing game script for the Texans, who are -3-point underdogs.
- Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is expected by our trusted projection set to see 136.0 plays on offense run: the 2nd-highest number on the slate this week.
- The passing offenses of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the still “weather” conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop-off.
- In this contest, Dalton Schultz is expected by the predictive model to find himself in the 87th percentile when it comes to TEs with 5.8 targets.
- With an impressive 42.0 adjusted receiving yards per game (86th percentile) this year, Dalton Schultz stands among the top pass-game tight ends in the league.
Cons
- The leading projections forecast the Houston Texans to be the 10th-least pass-focused team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 59.0% pass rate.
- Opposing quarterbacks teams have been wary to rely on the passing game too much against the Cleveland Browns, averaging the 3rd-fewest attempts in the league (just 31.0 per game) this year.
- Dalton Schultz’s 34.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that calculates high-value offensive usage) has been significantly lower this year than it was last year at 39.7.
- The Browns defense has surrendered the fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 28.0) to tight ends this year.
- The Browns pass defense has exhibited strong efficiency versus TEs this year, conceding 6.61 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 5th-fewest in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
39
Receiving Yards
39
Receiving Yards
