Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Week 16 brings us an NFC matchup between two teams that are fighting for the playoffs. The Rams have won four of their last five games to even their record at 7-7, while the Saints have the same record and are tied with the Buccaneers for first place in the NFC South. The winner of this matchup has a considerable advantage in the race of the final NFC playoff spots.
Each week, I will select my favorite prop bets for Thursday night. You can find all our Week 16 player projections here at FTNBets. All of the available betting lines for this week’s opening matchup are available on our FTNBets Prop Shop, where you can easily shop around for the sportsbook with the best odds on each player or team.
Let’s take a look at my favorite prop for this Thursday Night Football matchup!
Week 16 Player Prop
Kyren Williams Over 114.5 Rushing/Receiving Yards
(-114, FanDuel Sportsbook)
Kyren Williams has the premier late-round running back pick of the 2023 NFL season. The 23-year-old second-year running back from Notre Dame has been on a tear since Week 1 of this season, when he outperformed leading rusher Cam Akers.
Per our FTNFantasy Utilization Report, Williams has handled the third-highest share of team rushing attempts, earning 66.9% of the Rams rushes. He is also only one of two running backs (along with Josh Jacobs) who has produced over 70% of his team’s total rushing yards when active. Williams is also a factor in the passing game, ranking a healthy 13th with over 13.1% of the Rams targets. He is the focal point of this offense both on the ground and in the air.
New Orleans has allowed the 12th-most rushing yards to opposing backs and allows a robust 125.3 rushing yards per game in road matchups. Williams has been able to post big performances against stout rushing defenses such as Cleveland (88 yards, TD) and Baltimore (114 yards). He is basically matchup-proof because of his volume. In a short week at home, we project Williams to produce yet again.
Our FTNBets Model projects Williams for 120.5 total yards, eclipsing this total by five full yards. This game carries a healthy point total of 46.5 points, with a small 4.5-point spread. Let’s ride with one of the greatest late-round fantasy running back in recent history, Kyren Williams.
