Week 16 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Cole Kmet from EV Insight

Cole KmetReceiving Yards

Right now, Cole Kmet’s receiving yards prop is set at 30.5 yards (+115/-145).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 30.5 (-145) after it opened @ 32.5 (-110).

Pros

The Bears are a huge 8.5-point underdog this week, indicating an extreme passing game script.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 36.9 pass attempts per game vs. the Buffalo Bills defense this year: 9th-most in the NFL.
Cole Kmet has run a route on 83.7% of his team’s passing plays this year, ranking him in the 97th percentile among TEs.
THE BLITZ projects Cole Kmet to accumulate 5.0 targets in this week’s contest, on average, ranking in the 86th percentile among TEs.
Cole Kmet has been among the top TE receiving threats this year, averaging a stellar 31.0 yards per game while checking in at the 78th percentile.

Cons

The Chicago Bears boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 6.9% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears to be the 2nd-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 42.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 124.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Chicago Bears have called the 4th-least plays in football this year, averaging a mere 53.9 plays per game.
The weather forecast calls for 23-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.

Projection

THE BLITZ
27
Receiving Yards