Week 16 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Christian Kirk from EV Insight

Christian KirkReceiving Yards

Right now, Christian Kirk’s receiving yards prop is set at 48.5 yards (-103/-133).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 48.5 (-133) after it opened @ 53.5 (-115).

Pros

The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.9% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
Christian Kirk has been less involved as a potential pass-catcher this season (94.7% Route% in games he has played) than he did last season (81.9%).
THE BLITZ projects Christian Kirk to earn 7.5 targets in this contest, on average, ranking in the 84th percentile among wideouts.
Christian Kirk has accrued a colossal 72.0 air yards per game this year: 82nd percentile among wideouts.
The Jacksonville Jaguars offensive line grades out as the 6th-best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars to be the 11th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 56.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weatherman calls for 15-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
Christian Kirk’s possession skills have worsened this season, with his Completion% falling off from 72.6% to 68.4%.
The New York Jets defense has allowed the least receiving yards per game in the league (just 122.0) to wide receivers this year.
The New York Jets pass defense has conceded the 4th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (62.8%) to WRs this year (62.8%).

Projection

THE BLITZ
50
Receiving Yards