Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Garrett WilsonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 16
Jets vs. Jaguars
Right now, Garrett Wilson’s receiving yards prop is set at 52.5 yards (-104/-131).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 52.5 (-131) after it opened @ 57.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Jets to call the 10th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 66.4 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- Opposing teams have averaged 36.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars defense this year: 10th-most in football.
- THE BLITZ projects Garrett Wilson to notch 7.6 targets in this week’s contest, on average, placing him in the 85th percentile among WRs.
- Garrett Wilson has been an integral part of his team’s passing attack, earning a Target Share of 23.0% this year, which places him in the 84th percentile among wideouts.
- Garrett Wilson has posted a monstrous 79.0 air yards per game this year: 86th percentile among wideouts.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the New York Jets as the 9th-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 52.9% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The weather report calls for 15-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
- The New York Jets offensive line ranks as the 7th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all air attack statistics across the board.
- Garrett Wilson has been among the weakest wide receivers in the league at grinding out extra yardage, averaging a mere 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while ranking in the 1st percentile.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars pass defense has allowed the 9th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (64.7%) to wideouts this year (64.7%).
Projection
THE BLITZ
55
Receiving Yards
55
Receiving Yards
