Week 16 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Garrett Wilson from EV Insight

Garrett WilsonReceiving Yards

Right now, Garrett Wilson’s receiving yards prop is set at 52.5 yards (-104/-131).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 52.5 (-131) after it opened @ 57.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Jets to call the 10th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 66.4 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 36.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars defense this year: 10th-most in football.
THE BLITZ projects Garrett Wilson to notch 7.6 targets in this week’s contest, on average, placing him in the 85th percentile among WRs.
Garrett Wilson has been an integral part of his team’s passing attack, earning a Target Share of 23.0% this year, which places him in the 84th percentile among wideouts.
Garrett Wilson has posted a monstrous 79.0 air yards per game this year: 86th percentile among wideouts.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the New York Jets as the 9th-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 52.9% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weather report calls for 15-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
The New York Jets offensive line ranks as the 7th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all air attack statistics across the board.
Garrett Wilson has been among the weakest wide receivers in the league at grinding out extra yardage, averaging a mere 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while ranking in the 1st percentile.
The Jacksonville Jaguars pass defense has allowed the 9th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (64.7%) to wideouts this year (64.7%).

Projection

THE BLITZ
55
Receiving Yards