Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
There are five NBA games Tuesday, and there is plenty of value in the props market. While we still need to wait on injury news in some games, there are three bets I have already placed that I absolutely love. Without further ado, let’s get into the bets.
Best NBA Player Prop Bet
RJ Barrett Over 21.5 Points
RJ Barrett and the Knicks have played five games since Obi Toppin went out with an injury. In those games, all of which he has scored over 21.5 points, Barrett has played 35 minutes in a blowout win, then 44 minutes, then 34 minutes (he fouled out with 3 minutes left), then 38, and then finally 42 minutes on Sunday. We can call this the Tom Thibodeau effect. While most coaches would replace Toppin with another bench player, Thibs replaces him by increasing the minutes of his starters, and RJ is the biggest benefactor of that. Even with Stephen Curry out, this game should be close, which means RJ probably plays 40+ minutes. If that is the case, I love the over here.
Best NBA Same Game Parlay
Bojan Bogdanovic/Lauri Markkanen to Each Score 20+ Points
I like this spot for both Bojan Bogdanovic and Lauri Markkanen, and I Love combining the two for +145 odds. Bojan Bogdanovic has at least 22 points in his last four games and is now averaging 23.7 PPG this season. He’s facing a Jazz team that ranks 27th vs. shooters, per our Advanced DvP tool. His line is 22.5 at most books, so we’re taking a slight discount to get this as a parlay. On the other side, Markkanen has at least 20 points in six of his last eight games and is averaging over 22 PPG for the third straight month. He’s facing a struggling Pistons defense that is 30th vs. scorers and 28th vs. skilled centers. They particularly struggle vs. power forwards, giving up 23.91 PPG to the position, second most in the league.
Best NBA Longshot Prop Bet
Walker Kessler to Record a Double-Double
Walker Kessler is expected to start for the second straight game, as Kelly Olynyk is once again out with an ankle injury. Kessler was trending toward playing 30-plus minutes Monday, but he dealt with foul trouble all game, and then the game ultimately was a blowout. In Tuesday’s matchup against Detroit, we should be in for a close game that’ll keep Kessler on the floor if he stays out of foul trouble. Kessler is averaging 13.5 PPG per 36 minutes and 12.5 RPP per 36. Mix in the fact that the Jazz’s opponent, the Pistons, rank 27th against rebounders, per FTN’s Advanced DvP tool, and it’s evident that Kessler is set up for a big game.
