Week 16 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Byron Pringle from EV Insight

Byron PringleReceiving Yards

Right now, Byron Pringle’s receiving yards prop is set at 19.5 yards (-115/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 19.5 (-110) after it opened @ 20.5 (-110).

Pros

The Bears are a huge 8.5-point underdog this week, indicating an extreme passing game script.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 36.9 pass attempts per game vs. the Buffalo Bills defense this year: 9th-most in the NFL.
THE BLITZ projects Byron Pringle to be a much bigger part of his offense’s air attack this week (15.5% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (6.2% in games he has played).
Byron Pringle has been among the most reliable receivers in the league, completing an impressive 74.7% of passes thrown his way since the start of last season, checking in at the 88th percentile among wideouts.
Byron Pringle has been among the most efficient receivers in the league, averaging a stellar 9.89 yards-per-target since the start of last season while ranking in the 96th percentile among WRs.

Cons

The Chicago Bears boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 6.9% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears to be the 2nd-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 42.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 124.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Chicago Bears have called the 4th-least plays in football this year, averaging a mere 53.9 plays per game.
The weather forecast calls for 23-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.

Projection

THE BLITZ
23
Receiving Yards