NBA Prop of the Day
Jake Silverman
Austin HooperReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 16
Chiefs vs. Raiders
Right now, Austin Hooper’s receiving yards prop is set at 20.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the OVER up to 20.5 (-115) after it opened @ 15.5 (-115).
Pros
- This game’s spread indicates an extreme passing game script for the Raiders, who are big -10.5-point underdogs.
- While Austin Hooper has received 4.7% of his offense’s targets in games he has played this year, the projections expect him to be a much bigger part of Las Vegas’s pass game in this game at 10.5%.
- The Las Vegas Raiders O-line ranks as the 6th-best in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive effect on all air attack stats across the board.
- Austin Hooper’s ball-catching skills have gotten better this season, with his Adjusted Completion Rate rising from 75.6% to 79.0%.
- Austin Hooper’s 6.25 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year marks a substantial growth in his efficiency in picking up extra yardage over last year’s 3.5% figure.
Cons
- The projections expect the Raiders to be the least pass-focused team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 57.2% pass rate.
- As far as a defense’s influence on pace, at 28.57 seconds per play, the model projects the Raiders as the most sluggish in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment.
- Opposing teams have averaged 32.9 pass attempts per game versus the Chiefs defense this year: fewest in the NFL.
- After accumulating 28.0 air yards per game last year, Austin Hooper has seen a big downtick this year, currently sitting at 7.0 per game.
- Austin Hooper’s 12.0 adjusted yards per game on passes this year reflects a meaningful decline in his pass-catching prowess over last year’s 26.0 figure.
Projection
THE BLITZ
20
Receiving Yards
20
Receiving Yards
