Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Merry Christmas, and welcome to Hoops with Noops! Holidays and time with family can’t stop the NBA, and therefore they can’t stop me! In all seriousness, I hope you read this quickly, place your bets and focus on time with loved ones. Christmas is a magical season not matter how you celebrate.
I love that the NBA owns this day. I know the NFL has tried to force itself into the day, but Christmas is about NBA basketball. A lot of people say the season starts with Christmas, and although I often roll my eyes when I hear that, it does hold some truth. We are about 35% through the season, and this is when teams start to make serious decisions about whether they should buy in, hold pat or sell their assets and focus on the future. Christmas day also offers us four potential playoff previews and a chance to get a glimpse of teams we’ll be handicapping in May and possibly June.
Let’s dive into the matchups, see how the games might go, and find some value to help cover the cost of all these presents.
NBA Best Bets for Christmas
Milwaukee Bucks at New York Knicks
Current Line – Bucks -4, 241.5
My Projection – Bucks 125, Knicks 117
Key Injuries – Mitchell Robinson is out.
This is the fourth matchup between these two teams. Milwaukee hosted the first game as 5.5 favorites, and the Knicks (with Mitchell Robinson) covered by the hook as the Bucks won 110-105. The next two games were won by Milwaukee by 24 and 19 points. It’s not often that we have this much recent history to reference, but in this case it seems to tell us the Bucks are a bad matchup for the Knicks, especially without their starting center.
Without Robinson, there’s not much New York can do that Milwaukee can’t do better. The Knicks have a handful of talented guards that can score points in bunches from time to time, but the Bucks have the best version of that guard in Damian Lillard. Admittedly, the Milwaukee will struggle to guard Jalen Brunson, but the advantage still lies with the Bucks. Not many teams can slow down Giannis Antetokounmpo, but the Knicks are even more ill equipped than most. Robinson gave them one player big enough with the skill to protect the rim that could slow down Giannis, but instead it will be Isaiah Hartenstein and Taj Gibson. Yes, that is the same Taj Gibson who played a decade ago and was washed the first time he played for the Knicks five years ago.
In a lot of ways, the Bucks are just a taller, better version of the Knicks and they have Giannis. The power of Madison Square Garden on Christmas could be the thing that helps New York keep this close, but do you see how silly I had to be just to come up with something that favors the Knicks? The market hasn’t adjusted New York down enough for the loss of Robinson. That might be due to wins over the Phoenix Suns and Los Angeles Lakers, but this spread should be bigger. I have Milwaukee as eight-point favorites and will happily bet the -4 being offered in the betting markets.
Bet
Milwaukee Bucks -4 (-110, FanDuel Sportsbook)
Golden State Warriors at Denver Nuggets
Current Line – Nuggets -6.5, 233.5
My Projection – Nuggets 121, Warriors 111
Key Injuries – Draymond Green is out.
The Warriors have finally rounded into form. They’ve won five in a row, but that streak ends on Christmas. Winning that many games consecutively is generally impressive, but looking more closely, it’s not that impressive in this case. Three of the wins were over the Portland Trail Blazers (twice) and the Washinton Wizards. They only beat the Nets by four at home and needed overtime to defeat the Celtics, who were without Kristaps Porzingis and playing their first game of a road trip and the first of a back-to-back. I have loved watching Steve Kerr play with the lineup moving Brandin Podziemski and Jonathan Kuminga into a starting five that hasn’t changed for years. If the Warriors are going to have success in the postseason this year they need to keep experimenting and find ways to finally get their younger players to contribute.
Unfortunately, Monday will be a very tough test and one I expect them to fail. They go to Denver to face a Nuggets team that is also playing their best basketball of the season. They’ve won seven of their last eight games most them on the road and they smashed the Dallas Mavericks 130-104 at home. I’m sure this is no surprise, but Golden State, like every basketball team on the planet, has no solution for Nikola Jokic. The Serbian center is a top-two candidate for MVP for the fifth season in a row and is paying as well, if not better, than he ever has. Everything about this matchup screams Nuggets win by a lot at home. Maybe Stephen Curry can create a Christmas miracle and rain down threes like candy canes from Santa’s sleigh in the parade, but I’m going to bet against that. I make the Nuggets 10 point favorites, so I’ll play -6.5 or even -7 if that’s all you have available.
Bet
Denver Nuggets -6.5 (-110, BetMGM)
Not For Noops
Games I’m not betting and why I’m not betting them.
Boston Celtics at Los Angeles Lakers +2.5, 234.5
If you are a regular reader of Hoops with Noops, you are not surprised to see a Lakers game listed in this section. As has become tradition this season, both LeBron James and Anthony Davis are listed as questionable. That generally means one of the two will play, but also possibly both might play or not. It’s the worst. I get why they do it, but it still drives me nuts because if forces us to wait until we know for sure who is going to play before we make a bet. To add to our confusion, Kristaps Porzingis is questionable. If everyone plays, I make this game Boston Celtics -3.5 with a total of 229. Hopefully that is helpful later, but there’s not much we can do with that now. I would be shocked if LeBron missed a Christmas day game on national TV against the Boston Celtics, but I’m never shocked when Anthony Davis misses any game on any day regardless of the broadcast audience. If either LeBron or Davis miss the game and Kristaps Porzingis plays, I would bet Boston at -3 or better, but based on where the line is now, we won’t get that chance. If LeBron and Davis are in and Porzingis is out, I would bet the Lakers at any underdog price, even +1. If all three are somehow out, Boston is a bet at -6 or better, but, again, I think the market won’t give us that chance. We don’t have any bets, but we do have a plan, and that’s the best we can do for now.
Philadelphia 76ers at Miami Heat -2.5, 225
Joel Embiid hurt his ankle in his last game and will be missing this game, but at least we know that. Jimmy Butler is questionable and hasn’t played for a week. There’s no strong indication whether Butler will play or not and that makes this game impossible to bet now. If Butler is in, this is a great spot for the Miami Heat. The line will move, but if we get a chance to bet Miami -4 or better, that’s value. If Butler is out, I like the 76ers if they are still the underdog. Even Philadelphia +1 is a bet for me if Butler can’t play. Keep an eye on that injury news and act accordingly, but there’s nothing I can officially recommend for now.
Dallas Mavericks at Phoenix Suns -4.5, 236.5
No Kyrie Irving in this game, and Dereck Lively is questionable for Dallas. Bradley Beal and Jusuf Nurkic are out for Phoenix. Given those parameters, my projections line up almost exactly with the betting markets. If Lively can play, I like the Mavericks at this price and I don’t think it will move more than a point if the Dallas center can play. Lively is more important than the market seems to think. He’s the best rebounder and best pick and roll partner for Luka Doncic. His absence has been valued to be about 1.5 points given closing prices with and without him so far this season. I think he’s worth closer to three points which means we’ll have an edge good enough to bet if he’s available. Without Lively, these teams are very similar. Each has a potential MVP level player leading their offense and not much in the way of defenders let alone rim protectors. That would be a recipe for an over, however Phoenix has played at a very slow pace the past few weeks and if they can control how the games goes, can drag Dallas down to their tempo which would mean under would be the play. Unfortunately, I’m just not sure of that. So, if Lively is in and you can bet Dallas +3.5 or better, do it. If Lively is out, I’m going to pass on betting this game.
