Week 16 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Roschon Johnson from EV Insight

Roschon JohnsonRushing Yards

Right now, Roschon Johnson’s rushing yards prop is set at 37.5 yards (-139/+102).

The public has bet the OVER up to 37.5 (-139) after it opened @ 35.5 (-117).

Pros

The Bears are a 4.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
The projections expect the Bears as the most run-focused team on the slate this week with a 51.8% run rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
While Roschon Johnson has garnered 17.6% of his offense’s rush attempts in games he has played this year, our trusted projections expect him to be a more integral piece of Chicago’s ground game this week at 28.7%.
The Chicago offensive line grades out as the 9th-best in the NFL last year at executing run-blocking assingments.
This year, the porous Cardinals run defense has allowed a massive 146.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to the opposing side: the 2nd-most in the league.

Cons

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is expected by the projections to see only 126.7 plays on offense run: the 5th-fewest out of all the games this week.

Projection

THE BLITZ
39
Rushing Yards