Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Amon-Ra St. BrownReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 16
Vikings vs. Lions
Right now, Amon-Ra St. Brown’s receiving yards prop is set at 75.5 yards (-110/-120).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 75.5 (-120) after it opened @ 77.5 (-110).
Pros
- The leading projections forecast the Lions to call the 7th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 66.4 plays, based on their underlying traits and game dynamics.
- The Detroit Lions have called the 8th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a monstrous 60.4 plays per game.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 38.2 pass attempts per game vs. the Minnesota Vikings defense this year: 7th-most in the league.
- Amon-Ra St. Brown has notched significantly more adjusted receiving yards per game (94.0) this year than he did last year (77.0).
Cons
- The model projects the Detroit Lions to be the 10th-least pass-focused team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 59.0% pass rate.
- The Vikings safeties project as the 3rd-best safety corps in the league this year in defending pass-catchers.
Projection
THE BLITZ
90
Receiving Yards
90
Receiving Yards
