Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Amari CooperReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 16
Texans vs. Browns
Right now, Amari Cooper’s receiving yards prop is set at 61.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 61.5 (-110) after it opened @ 60.5 (-114).
Pros
- Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Browns to pass on 60.5% of their opportunities: the 9th-highest clip on the slate this week.
- The model projects the Browns to run the 4th-most total plays on the slate this week with 68.2 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The largest volume of plays in the NFL have been run by the Cleveland Browns this year (a monstrous 65.8 per game on average).
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- The Houston Texans defense has conceded the 8th-most adjusted receiving yards per game in the league (167.0) versus WRs this year.
Cons
- With a 3-point advantage, the Browns are favored this week, implying more of a reliance on running than their typical game plan.
- Amari Cooper’s 57.0% Adjusted Completion Rate this year reflects a noteworthy drop-off in his receiving skills over last year’s 64.9% figure.
- Amari Cooper’s 8.4 adjusted yards per target this season conveys an impressive decline in his receiving ability over last season’s 9.6 figure.
- When it comes to cornerbacks in defending pass-catchers, Houston’s CB corps has been exceptional this year, ranking as the 5th-best in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
69
Receiving Yards
69
Receiving Yards
