Week 16 Player Props: Passing Yards for Patrick Mahomes from EV Insight

Patrick MahomesPassing Yards

Right now, Patrick Mahomes’s passing yards prop is set at 269.5 yards (-110/-110).

Pros

The leading projections forecast the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 8th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 60.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The predictive model expects Patrick Mahomes to throw 37.4 passes in this contest, on average: the 7th-most out of all quarterbacks.
In regards to pocket protection (and the strong impact it has on all pass attack metrics), the O-line of the Kansas City Chiefs profiles as the 10th-best in the NFL this year.
Patrick Mahomes checks in as one of the most accurate QBs in football this year with a remarkable 67.5% Adjusted Completion%, grading out in the 83rd percentile.
This year, the feeble Las Vegas Raiders defense has conceded a whopping 73.7% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the highest rate in football.

Cons

This week’s line implies an extreme running game script for the Chiefs, who are overwhelmingly favored by 10.5 points.
The weather forecast calls for 15-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
Patrick Mahomes’s 280.0 adjusted passing yards per game this season illustrates a substantial regression in his passing ability over last season’s 325.0 mark.
Patrick Mahomes’s passing efficiency has tailed off this year, averaging a measly 7.48 adjusted yards-per-target vs a 8.54 figure last year.

Projection

THE BLITZ
274
Passing Yards