NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Patrick MahomesPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 16
Chiefs vs. Raiders
Right now, Patrick Mahomes’s passing yards prop is set at 269.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- The leading projections forecast the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 8th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 60.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The predictive model expects Patrick Mahomes to throw 37.4 passes in this contest, on average: the 7th-most out of all quarterbacks.
- In regards to pocket protection (and the strong impact it has on all pass attack metrics), the O-line of the Kansas City Chiefs profiles as the 10th-best in the NFL this year.
- Patrick Mahomes checks in as one of the most accurate QBs in football this year with a remarkable 67.5% Adjusted Completion%, grading out in the 83rd percentile.
- This year, the feeble Las Vegas Raiders defense has conceded a whopping 73.7% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the highest rate in football.
Cons
- This week’s line implies an extreme running game script for the Chiefs, who are overwhelmingly favored by 10.5 points.
- The weather forecast calls for 15-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
- Patrick Mahomes’s 280.0 adjusted passing yards per game this season illustrates a substantial regression in his passing ability over last season’s 325.0 mark.
- Patrick Mahomes’s passing efficiency has tailed off this year, averaging a measly 7.48 adjusted yards-per-target vs a 8.54 figure last year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
274
Passing Yards
274
Passing Yards
