Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Nick MullensPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 16
Vikings vs. Lions
Right now, Nick Mullens’s passing yards prop is set at 257.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 257.5 (-110) after it opened @ 253.5 (-110).
Pros
- The Minnesota Vikings may pass less in this week’s game (and hand the ball off more) since they be rolling out backup QB Nick Mullens.
- Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Minnesota Vikings to pass on 64.4% of their plays: the highest rate among all teams this week.
- The predictive model expects this game to see the 5th-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 130.9 plays, based on the traits of each team and game dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
- With an exceptional 76.4% Adjusted Completion% (92nd percentile) this year, Nick Mullens rates among the most accurate passers in the NFL.
Cons
- This year, the imposing Lions defense has conceded a puny 67.9% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the 8th-best rate in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
316
Passing Yards
316
Passing Yards
