Week 16 Player Props: Passing Yards for Justin Fields from EV Insight

Justin FieldsPassing Yards

Right now, Justin Fields’s passing yards prop is set at 207.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 207.5 (-110) after it opened @ 205.5 (-110).

Pros

Justin Fields’s 196.0 adjusted passing yards per game this season signifies an impressive progression in his throwing prowess over last season’s 149.0 figure.
This year, the deficient Arizona Cardinals defense has conceded a monstrous 73.6% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing offenses: the 5th-worst rate in football.
The Arizona Cardinals pass defense has displayed bad efficiency this year, surrendering 8.14 adjusted yards-per-target: the 7th-most in the league.
The Cardinals cornerbacks profile as the 2nd-worst collection of CBs in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.

Cons

The Bears are a 4.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
The predictive model expects the Bears to be the least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 48.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is expected by the projections to see only 126.7 plays on offense run: the 5th-fewest out of all the games this week.
In this contest, Justin Fields is predicted by the model to average the 2nd-fewest pass attempts out of all quarterbacks with 27.5.
Opposing offenses have averaged 32.1 pass attempts per game against the Cardinals defense this year: 4th-fewest in the NFL.

Projection

THE BLITZ
184
Passing Yards