Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Justin FieldsPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 16
Bears vs. Cardinals
Right now, Justin Fields’s passing yards prop is set at 207.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 207.5 (-110) after it opened @ 205.5 (-110).
Pros
- Justin Fields’s 196.0 adjusted passing yards per game this season signifies an impressive progression in his throwing prowess over last season’s 149.0 figure.
- This year, the deficient Arizona Cardinals defense has conceded a monstrous 73.6% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing offenses: the 5th-worst rate in football.
- The Arizona Cardinals pass defense has displayed bad efficiency this year, surrendering 8.14 adjusted yards-per-target: the 7th-most in the league.
- The Cardinals cornerbacks profile as the 2nd-worst collection of CBs in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.
Cons
- The Bears are a 4.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
- The predictive model expects the Bears to be the least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 48.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
- Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is expected by the projections to see only 126.7 plays on offense run: the 5th-fewest out of all the games this week.
- In this contest, Justin Fields is predicted by the model to average the 2nd-fewest pass attempts out of all quarterbacks with 27.5.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 32.1 pass attempts per game against the Cardinals defense this year: 4th-fewest in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
184
Passing Yards
184
Passing Yards
