Week 16 Player Props: Passing Yards for Josh Allen from EV Insight

Josh AllenPassing Yards

Right now, Josh Allen’s passing yards prop is set at 245.5 yards (-135/+105).

The public has bet the OVER up to 245.5 (-135) after it opened @ 238.5 (-115).

Pros

The predictive model expects the Bills to call the 8th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 65.9 plays, based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
In totaling a staggering 36.8 pass attempts per game this year, Josh Allen stands among the top QBs in the league (83rd percentile) in this regard.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 38.9 pass attempts per game versus the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year: 6th-most in football.
In regards to pass protection (and the positive effect it has on all pass attack metrics), the offensive line of the Bills ranks as the 10th-best in the league this year.
Josh Allen profiles as one of the leading passers in the NFL this year, averaging an excellent 267.0 adjusted yards per game while grading out in the 89th percentile.

Cons

An extreme rushing game script is suggested by the Bills being an enormous 12.5-point favorite in this game.
Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Buffalo Bills to pass on 55.2% of their plays: the 7th-lowest rate on the slate this week.
The Los Angeles Chargers linebackers project as the 6th-best LB corps in football this year when it comes to pass rush.

Projection

THE BLITZ
259
Passing Yards