Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Joe FlaccoPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 16
Texans vs. Browns
Right now, Joe Flacco’s passing yards prop is set at 250.5 yards (-130/+100).
The public has bet the OVER up to 250.5 (-130) after it opened @ 240.5 (-115).
Pros
- Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Browns to pass on 60.5% of their opportunities: the 9th-highest clip on the slate this week.
- The model projects the Browns to run the 4th-most total plays on the slate this week with 68.2 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The largest volume of plays in the NFL have been run by the Cleveland Browns this year (a monstrous 65.8 per game on average).
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- This year, the deficient Houston Texans defense has allowed a colossal 260.0 adjusted yards per game through the air to opposing quarterbacks: the 6th-most in football.
Cons
- With a 3-point advantage, the Browns are favored this week, implying more of a reliance on running than their typical game plan.
- Joe Flacco is positioned as one of the worst precision passers in football this year with a 59.2% Adjusted Completion%, ranking in the 19th percentile.
- When it comes to cornerbacks in defending pass-catchers, Houston’s CB corps has been exceptional this year, ranking as the 5th-best in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
256
Passing Yards
256
Passing Yards
