Week 16 Player Props: Passing Yards for Joe Flacco from EV Insight

Joe FlaccoPassing Yards

Right now, Joe Flacco’s passing yards prop is set at 250.5 yards (-130/+100).

The public has bet the OVER up to 250.5 (-130) after it opened @ 240.5 (-115).

Pros

Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Browns to pass on 60.5% of their opportunities: the 9th-highest clip on the slate this week.
The model projects the Browns to run the 4th-most total plays on the slate this week with 68.2 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The largest volume of plays in the NFL have been run by the Cleveland Browns this year (a monstrous 65.8 per game on average).
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
This year, the deficient Houston Texans defense has allowed a colossal 260.0 adjusted yards per game through the air to opposing quarterbacks: the 6th-most in football.

Cons

With a 3-point advantage, the Browns are favored this week, implying more of a reliance on running than their typical game plan.
Joe Flacco is positioned as one of the worst precision passers in football this year with a 59.2% Adjusted Completion%, ranking in the 19th percentile.
When it comes to cornerbacks in defending pass-catchers, Houston’s CB corps has been exceptional this year, ranking as the 5th-best in football.

Projection

THE BLITZ
256
Passing Yards