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Week 16 Player Props: Passing Yards for Jared Goff from EV Insight background

Week 16 Player Props: Passing Yards for Jared Goff from EV Insight

NFL

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December 22, 2022

Week 16 Player Props: Passing Yards for Jared Goff from EV Insight

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FTN Staff

Jared GoffPassing Yards

Player Props – Week 16

Panthers vs. Lions

Right now, Jared Goff’s passing yards prop is set at 239.5 yards (+102/-139).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 239.5 (-139) after it opened @ 243.5 (-115).

O/U 239.5
-115/-115

O/U 241.5
-110/-110

O/U 239.5
102/-139

O/U 239.5
-120/-110

Pros

Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 4th-highest clip in the NFL vs. the Carolina Panthers defense this year (73.8%).
The Carolina Panthers safeties profile as the 5th-worst unit in the NFL this year in covering receivers.
The Carolina Panthers have stacked the box versus opponents on 26.1% of their plays since the start of last season, most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Detroit Lions have elected to go for it on 4th down 27.9% of the time since the start of last season (most in football), which usually means more offensive volume, more touchdown potential, and higher offensive stats across the board.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions as the 11th-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 56.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 124.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Detroit Lions offensive line grades out as the 4th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all pass game stats across the board.
The Carolina Panthers defense has been quite strong when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, conceding an average of 3.87 yards-after-the-catch this year: the least in the NFL.
The Detroit Lions offensive line has allowed their QB a measly 2.53 seconds before the pass (9th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all pass attack stats across the board.

Projection

THE BLITZ
212
Passing Yards

Previous NHL Prop Bets with Chris Meaney (12/22) Next Week 16 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Rashid Shaheed from EV Insight

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