Week 16 Player Props: Passing Yards for Aidan O'Connell from EV Insight

Aidan O’ConnellPassing Yards

Right now, Aidan O’Connell’s passing yards prop is set at 207.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 207.5 (-110) after it opened @ 212.5 (-110).

Pros

This game’s spread indicates an extreme passing game script for the Raiders, who are big -10.5-point underdogs.
The Las Vegas Raiders O-line ranks as the 6th-best in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive effect on all air attack stats across the board.
As it relates to safeties in defending receivers, Kansas City’s collection of safeties has been dreadful this year, profiling as the worst in the league.

Cons

The projections expect the Raiders to be the least pass-focused team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 57.2% pass rate.
As far as a defense’s influence on pace, at 28.57 seconds per play, the model projects the Raiders as the most sluggish in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment.
Opposing teams have averaged 32.9 pass attempts per game versus the Chiefs defense this year: fewest in the NFL.
Opposing teams have thrown for the 6th-fewest yards in the league (just 207.0 adjusted yards per game) versus the Chiefs defense this year.
The Kansas City Chiefs pass defense has exhibited strong efficiency this year, conceding 6.98 adjusted yards-per-target: the 6th-fewest in football.

Projection

THE BLITZ
201
Passing Yards