Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Aidan O’ConnellPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 16
Chiefs vs. Raiders
Right now, Aidan O’Connell’s passing yards prop is set at 207.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 207.5 (-110) after it opened @ 212.5 (-110).
Pros
- This game’s spread indicates an extreme passing game script for the Raiders, who are big -10.5-point underdogs.
- The Las Vegas Raiders O-line ranks as the 6th-best in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive effect on all air attack stats across the board.
- As it relates to safeties in defending receivers, Kansas City’s collection of safeties has been dreadful this year, profiling as the worst in the league.
Cons
- The projections expect the Raiders to be the least pass-focused team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 57.2% pass rate.
- As far as a defense’s influence on pace, at 28.57 seconds per play, the model projects the Raiders as the most sluggish in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment.
- Opposing teams have averaged 32.9 pass attempts per game versus the Chiefs defense this year: fewest in the NFL.
- Opposing teams have thrown for the 6th-fewest yards in the league (just 207.0 adjusted yards per game) versus the Chiefs defense this year.
- The Kansas City Chiefs pass defense has exhibited strong efficiency this year, conceding 6.98 adjusted yards-per-target: the 6th-fewest in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
201
Passing Yards
201
Passing Yards
