Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Najee HarrisRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 15
Panthers vs. Steelers
Right now, Najee Harris’s rushing yards prop is set at 56.5 yards (+110/-140).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 56.5 (-140) after it opened @ 59.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Pittsburgh Steelers have run the 6th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a monstrous 60.7 plays per game.
- THE BLITZ projects Najee Harris to accrue 14.1 rush attempts in this week’s contest, on average, placing him in the 77th percentile among RBs.
- Opposing teams have rushed for the 10th-most yards in football (131 per game) vs. the Carolina Panthers defense this year.
- The Pittsburgh Steelers have gone no-huddle on 15.2% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-most in the league). This quickens the pace, leading to more volume and stat accumulation.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Pittsburgh Steelers to be the 10th-least run-heavy offense in football (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 36.7% run rate.
- THE BLITZ projects the Steelers to run the 9th-least total plays among all teams this week with 63.7 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- Najee Harris has been a much smaller piece of his team’s rushing attack this season (60.4% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (78.8%).
- Najee Harris has rushed for substantially fewer yards per game (53.0) this year than he did last year (63.0).
- Najee Harris’s ground effectiveness (3.67 yards per carry) has been some of the worst in the NFL this year (10th percentile among running backs).
Projection
THE BLITZ
59
Rushing Yards
59
Rushing Yards
