NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/17)
Alex Christenson
MyCole PruittReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 15
Saints vs. Falcons
Right now, MyCole Pruitt’s receiving yards prop is set at 5.5 yards (-120/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 5.5 (-110) after it opened @ 8.5 (-110).
Pros
- The Falcons are a 5.5-point underdog in this week’s game, indicating a passing game script.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- The Atlanta Falcons offensive line ranks as the 10th-best in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a strong effect on all air attack stats across the board.
- MyCole Pruitt’s possession skills have gotten a boost this year, with his Completion% jumping from 79.2% to 89.8%.
- The New Orleans Saints defense has gotten pressure on opposing QBs 2.55 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 4th-slowest in the league since the start of last season.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons to be the 6th-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 50.9% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 126.0 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Atlanta Falcons have called the least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a mere 52.7 plays per game.
- MyCole Pruitt has been used less as a potential target this season (11.6% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (23.4%).
- The New Orleans Saints defense has given up the least receiving yards per game in the league (just 31.0) to TEs this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
14
Receiving Yards
14
Receiving Yards
