Jayden Daniels vs Caleb Williams
Jay Felicio
NBA prop betting has been one of my most successful and favorite things to do in the betting world over the last couple years. Over that timeframe, I have created, developed and continuously improved an NBA betting model that projects out each player’s stat line thanks to advanced data and several thousand simulated games.
I use these projections and compare them against the lines across the different sportsbooks to determine the best bets of the day.
Let’s get to it.
Onyeka Okongwu Over 12.5 Points
(+106, FanDuel Sportsbook)
Onyeka Okongwu is set to see some more time and usage with Clint Capela and John Collins out. He has scored at least 14 points in two of his last three games, and my model projects him for 15.7 Friday in a great matchup against Charlotte.
Julius Randle Over 25.5 Points
(-105, FanDuel Sportsbook)
Julius Randle has been on fire, scoring 30-plus in three of his last four games, and 27-plus in four straight. He just scored 31 points against this same Chicago team, and with the game projecting to be close, we should expect a ton of minutes for Randle, who played 41 regulation minutes last game.
Donovan Mitchell Over 27.5 Points
(-118, FanDuel Sportsbook)
Donovan Mitchell gets an elite matchup against the Pacers, who are top five in pace and bottom 10 in DEF. They also rank 22nd in points allowed, while ranking 28th in defense against opposing guards. Mitchell is averaging 29 PPG and has gone over this number in 72% of games this season, including seven of his last 10 games.
