Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Latavius MurrayRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 15
Broncos vs. Cardinals
Right now, Latavius Murray’s rushing yards prop is set at 51.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 51.5 (-110) after it opened @ 49.5 (-120).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-most plays run out of all the games this week at 134.7 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Latavius Murray to accumulate 17.1 rush attempts in this week’s game, on average, ranking him in the 90th percentile among RBs.
- Latavius Murray has been a more integral piece of his team’s run game this season (53.3% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (33.5%).
- The Arizona Cardinals defense has produced the 5th-worst efficiency against opposing rushing attacks this year, surrendering 5.20 yards-per-carry.
- The Arizona Cardinals linebackers rank as the worst collection of LBs in the league this year in regard to run defense.
Cons
- The Denver Broncos will be rolling with backup quarterback Brett Rypien in this contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
- The Denver Broncos will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.3% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
- The Broncos have been the 10th-least run-centric offense in the NFL (context-neutralized) this year with a 38.0% run rate.
- The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- Latavius Murray’s ground efficiency (3.73 yards per carry) has been some of the worst in football this year (18th percentile among RBs).
Projection
THE BLITZ
70
Rushing Yards
70
Rushing Yards
