NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/17)
Alex Christenson
Logan ThomasReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 15
Commanders vs. Giants
Right now, Logan Thomas’s receiving yards prop is set at 18.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 18.5 (-110) after it opened @ 20.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects Logan Thomas to total 3.9 targets this week, on average, ranking in the 79th percentile among tight ends.
- Logan Thomas has accumulated a whopping 28.0 air yards per game this year: 81st percentile among TEs.
- The New York Giants pass defense has surrendered the 5th-highest Completion% in football (78.7%) to TEs this year (78.7%).
- The New York Giants pass defense has shown weak efficiency against tight ends this year, surrendering 9.11 yards-per-target to the position: the most in the NFL.
- The New York Giants linebackers grade out as the 3rd-worst unit in the league this year in covering receivers.
Cons
- The Commanders are a 4.5-point favorite in this game, likely creating a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders to be the 5th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 50.4% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders offense to be the 7th-worst paced team in the league (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 29.22 seconds per play.
- Opposing teams have averaged 33.9 pass attempts per game against the New York Giants defense this year: 8th-least in the NFL.
- Logan Thomas’s sure-handedness have declined this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 72.2% to 63.2%.
Projection
THE BLITZ
23
Receiving Yards
23
Receiving Yards
