Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Keaton MitchellRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 15
Jaguars vs. Ravens
Right now, Keaton Mitchell’s rushing yards prop is set at 44.5 yards (-112/-117).
The public has bet the OVER up to 44.5 (-112) after it opened @ 43.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Ravens are a 4-point favorite in this game, likely creating a rushing game script.
- The model projects the Ravens to be the 3rd-most run-heavy team among all teams this week with a 49.8% run rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
Cons
- Right now, the 4th-most sluggish paced team in football (context-neutralized) according to the model is the Baltimore Ravens.
- Opposing squads have rushed for the 8th-fewest adjusted yards in the NFL (just 97.0 per game) against the Jacksonville Jaguars defense this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
52
Rushing Yards
52
Rushing Yards
