Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Jaylen WarrenRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 15
Colts vs. Steelers
Right now, Jaylen Warren’s rushing yards prop is set at 46.5 yards (-115/-105).
The public has bet the OVER up to 46.5 (-115) after it opened @ 44.5 (-110).
Pros
- Jaylen Warren has been much more involved in his team’s run game this season (32.3% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (16.3%).
- When talking about run support (and the ramifications it has on all ground game stats), the offensive line of the Steelers profiles as the 10th-best in the league last year.
- Jaylen Warren’s 42.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this year reflects an impressive improvement in his running ability over last year’s 23.0 rate.
- With an exceptional total of 4.97 adjusted yards per carry (88th percentile), Jaylen Warren places among the best pure rushers in the league this year.
- Opposing teams have run for the 5th-most adjusted yards in the league (136 per game) vs. the Indianapolis Colts defense this year.
Cons
- The predictive model expects the Pittsburgh Steelers offense to be the 10th-slowest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 28.41 seconds per snap.
- The passing attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still “weather” conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may slide.
Projection
THE BLITZ
43
Rushing Yards
43
Rushing Yards
