Week 15 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Joe Mixon from EV Insight

Joe MixonRushing Yards

Right now, Joe Mixon’s rushing yards prop is set at 54.5 yards (-109/-125).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 54.5 (-125) after it opened @ 56.5 (-119).

Pros

With a 3-point advantage, the Bengals are favored in this week’s game, suggesting more of a reliance on rushing than their typical approach.
The model projects the Cincinnati Bengals to run the 3rd-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 67.2 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The leading projections forecast Joe Mixon to accumulate 15.6 carries this week, on average, putting him in the 87th percentile among running backs.
Joe Mixon has averaged 59.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this year, one of the largest marks in the league among RBs (85th percentile).

Cons

The projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 9th-least run-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 39.4% run rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
The Cincinnati Bengals have run the 7th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling a mere 55.9 plays per game.
The model projects Joe Mixon to be much less involved in his offense’s running game this week (59.2% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (75.2% in games he has played).
The Bengals O-line profiles as the 10th-worst in the league last year at opening holes for runners.
The opposing side have rushed for the 5th-fewest adjusted yards in the league (just 93.0 per game) against the Minnesota Vikings defense this year.

Projection

THE BLITZ
64
Rushing Yards