Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Jared GoffPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 15
Lions vs. Broncos
Right now, Jared Goff’s passing yards prop is set at 255.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 255.5 (-110) after it opened @ 259.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Detroit Lions have run the 8th-most plays in football this year, totaling a staggering 60.6 plays per game.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- In logging a colossal 37.6 pass attempts per game this year, Jared Goff slots in among the top QBs in football (84th percentile) in this respect.
- When it comes to protecting the passer (and the strong impact it has on all pass attack statistics), the O-line of the Lions ranks as the 4th-best in the league this year.
- This year, the weak Broncos defense has been gouged for the 5th-most adjusted yards-per-target in the league to the opposing side: a staggering 8.23 yards.
Cons
- This week’s line suggests a running game script for the Lions, who are favored by 4.5 points.
- The projections expect the Lions to be the 7th-least pass-heavy offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now with a 58.5% pass rate.
- The projections expect this game to have the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 124.1 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Projection
THE BLITZ
270
Passing Yards
270
Passing Yards
