Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Michael PittmanReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 15
Colts vs. Steelers
Right now, Michael Pittman’s receiving yards prop is set at 73.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- The projections expect the Colts as the 10th-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 59.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The leading projections forecast the Colts offense to be the 4th-fastest paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the moment, averaging 26.16 seconds per play.
- The pass attacks of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm “weather” conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may fall-off.
- The model projects Michael Pittman to accumulate 11.2 targets in this week’s game, on average, placing him in the 100th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
- Michael Pittman has posted a lot more adjusted receiving yards per game (77.0) this year than he did last year (61.0).
Cons
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 34.5 pass attempts per game against the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year: 10th-fewest in football.
- As it relates to linebackers rushing the passer, Pittsburgh’s group of LBs has been terrific this year, profiling as the 2nd-best in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
88
Receiving Yards
88
Receiving Yards
