Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
James CookRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 15
Bills vs. Cowboys
Right now, James Cook’s rushing yards prop is set at 51.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 51.5 (-115) after it opened @ 51.5 (-110).
Pros
- Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is forecasted by our trusted projection set to see 132.3 total plays run: the 3rd-highest number out of all the games this week.
- After comprising 19.1% of his team’s run game usage last season, James Cook has played a bigger part in the ground game this season, now taking on 48.4%.
- James Cook has run for significantly more adjusted yards per game (59.0) this season than he did last season (32.0).
Cons
- Our trusted projections expect the Bills to be the 2nd-least run-heavy team in football (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 33.0% run rate.
- As it relates to blocking for ball-carriers (and the significance it has on all ground game statistics), the O-line of the Bills profiles as the 10th-worst in the league last year.
- James Cook’s rushing efficiency has tailed off this season, averaging a measly 4.70 adjusted yards-per-carry vs a 5.79 figure last season.
- The Dallas defensive ends project as the 2nd-best group of DEs in the NFL this year when it comes to stopping the run.
Projection
THE BLITZ
53
Rushing Yards
53
Rushing Yards
