Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
James ConnerRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 15
Broncos vs. Cardinals
Right now, James Conner’s rushing yards prop is set at 67.5 yards (-142/+104).
The public has bet the OVER up to 67.5 (-142) after it opened @ 62.5 (-110).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 134.7 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Arizona Cardinals have run the 3rd-most plays in the league this year, totaling a colossal 63.2 plays per game.
- THE BLITZ projects James Conner to garner 21.3 rush attempts in this contest, on average, placing him in the 99th percentile among running backs.
- James Conner has picked up 59.0 yards per game on the ground this year, one of the largest marks in the league among RBs (82nd percentile).
- The Denver Broncos have stacked the box versus opponents on just 9.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the NFL. Choosing not to keep an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
Cons
- The Arizona Cardinals will be rolling out backup QB TEXT1 this week, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
- The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- The Arizona Cardinals offensive line grades out as the 6th-worst in the league this year at run-game blocking.
- The Arizona Cardinals have incorporated some form of misdirection on a measly 34.3% of their plays since the start of last season (least in football), which likely makes the offense more predictable and less effective.
Projection
THE BLITZ
93
Rushing Yards
93
Rushing Yards
