Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Isiah PachecoRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 15
Texans vs. Chiefs
Right now, Isiah Pacheco’s rushing yards prop is set at 69.5 yards (-140/+105).
The public has bet the OVER up to 69.5 (-140) after it opened @ 69.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Chiefs are an enormous 14.5-point favorite in this week’s game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Chiefs to run the 10th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 66.4 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Kansas City Chiefs have run the 8th-most plays in football this year, totaling a whopping 59.8 plays per game.
- Isiah Pacheco’s rushing efficiency (4.94 yards per carry) has been some of the best in the league this year (82nd percentile among running backs).
- Opposing squads have run for the most yards in the league (167 per game) versus the Houston Texans defense this year.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the 7th-least run-oriented team on the slate this week with a 36.5% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
- The Kansas City Chiefs have gone no-huddle on a lowly 1.8% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in football). This slows down the pace, leading to less volume and stat-padding.
- The Kansas City Chiefs have risked going for it on 4th down a mere 15.8% of the time since the start of last season (8th-least in football), which typically means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive metrics across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
62
Rushing Yards
62
Rushing Yards
