Week 15 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Derrick Henry from EV Insight

Derrick HenryRushing Yards

Right now, Derrick Henry’s rushing yards prop is set at 71.5 yards (-135/+105).

The public has bet the OVER up to 71.5 (-135) after it opened @ 66.5 (-115).

Pros

With a 3-point advantage, the Titans are favored in this game, indicating more of an emphasis on running than their standard approach.
The projections expect the Tennessee Titans to be the 6th-most run-centric team on the slate this week with a 48.2% run rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
The leading projections forecast Derrick Henry to earn 18.5 carries this week, on balance, ranking him in the 93rd percentile among running backs.
The Houston defensive tackles profile as the worst unit in football this year with their run defense.

Cons

Given their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Tennessee Titans are anticipated by the projection model to call just 64.3 plays on offense in this contest: the 10th-lowest number among all teams this week.
The Titans have called the 4th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 54.5 plays per game.
Derrick Henry has been a much smaller part of his team’s run game this season (67.3% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last season (80.1%).
Derrick Henry has run for substantially fewer adjusted yards per game (65.0) this year than he did last year (91.0).
The Texans defense boasts the 2nd-best efficiency against opposing run games this year, giving up just 3.61 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC).

Projection

THE BLITZ
80
Rushing Yards