Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Alvin KamaraRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 15
Saints vs. Giants
Right now, Alvin Kamara’s rushing yards prop is set at 59.5 yards (-130/+100).
The public has bet the OVER up to 59.5 (-130) after it opened @ 55.5 (-117).
Pros
- The Saints are a 6.5-point favorite in this week’s contest, indicating a rushing game script.
- The model projects this game to have the 2nd-most plays run among all games this week at 133.6 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The 3rd-largest volume of plays in football have been called by the New Orleans Saints this year (a massive 62.1 per game on average).
- With a remarkable total of 60.0 adjusted rushing yards per game (87th percentile), Alvin Kamara stands as one of the best pure rushers in football this year.
- The Giants defense owns the 2nd-worst efficiency against opposing running games this year, yielding 4.95 adjusted yards-per-carry.
Cons
- The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm “weather” conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop-off.
- As it relates to the defensive tackles’ role in defending against the run, New York’s unit has been exceptional this year, grading out as the best in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
55
Rushing Yards
55
Rushing Yards
