NFL Survivor/Eliminator Picks: Week 15

These are dark December days when you are out of Eagles, Ravens and Cowboys to pick and the Patriots can upset the Steelers and Giants can upset the Packers and mar what had very recently been a perfect 10-0 Survivor picks scorecard. But oh well. FTN pays me either way! Let’s keep this train rolling.

Week 14 NFL Eliminator Picks

Los Angeles Rams

-8.5 vs. Commanders

Despite their overtime loss to the Ravens Sunday, the Rams are trending up. And former Rams Super Bowl winner Andrew Whitworth explained to Kevin Clark what makes Sean McVay a special head coach. “We spent time not talking about football for the first hour of our meetings. We spent time […] talking about what it is to be a good person and a good human being and a good athlete and a good football player in general. And when you start with a foundation that’s built on how do I do the right things, handle myself in the right way, and support the people who are around me to where we all elevate together, I think you have a good chance of having a good football team.”

That’s interesting. I just assumed it was his brilliance as a film analyst and as a playcaller that made him special. Maybe the Panthers fired former Presbyterian minister Frank Reich too quickly?

San Francisco 49ers

-12.5 at Cardinals

Look, I understand why 49ers fans are upset. But I don’t think Cam Newton called Brock Purdy a game manager because Purdy is making plays to try not to lose games rather than to try to win games.

I think Newton called Purdy a game manager because, like most managers — love ya Frank! — Purdy is going to take credit for his team’s success even though Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle did all of the work.

Give me “Purdy’s” 49ers by multiple touchdowns.

Las Vegas Raiders

-3 vs. Chargers

I certainly won’t watch a second of this Aidan O’Connell versus Easton Stick Thursday matchup. But that doesn’t mean I won’t benefit from its standing atop the Week 15 Revenge Game rankings!

1. Jerry Tillery, Raiders vs. Chargers

Jerry Tillery may be the only person sadder to see Justin Herbert out this Thursday than the handful of Chargers fans and analytics nerds that still think Herbert is a better quarterback than Joe Burrow.

2. Mike White via Tua Tagovailoa, Dolphins vs. Jets

Mike White probably thought that if he signed with the Dolphins he’d have a good chance to play for an injured Tua Tagovailoa this season. But it’s been his former Jets team that has handed out quarterback starts to their third and fourth quarterbacks and a second quarterback who would rather have taken his ball and gone home. Go figure.

3. Carson Wentz via Matthew Stafford, Rams vs. Commanders

I’m just receiving word that Carson Wentz is both still in the NFL as Matthew Stafford’s backup and still in regular contact with current Commanders quarterback Sam Howell, who Howell considers a mentor. Huh. It’s no wonder Howell leads the league with 14 interceptions.

4. JuJu Smith-Schuster, Patriots vs. Chiefs

JuJu Smith-Schuster may literally have handed the Commanders a win over his Patriots in Week 9 and within the week convinced Robert Kraft to fire the greatest head coach of all time. But Smith-Schuster also has four fewer drops than Rashee Rice and two fewer drops than Kadarius Toney and Justin Watson this season. No doubt Andy Reid is mired in regret.

5. Irv Smith, Bengals vs. Vikings

Irv Smith may have circled Week 15 on his calendar when he left the Vikings for the Bengals in free agency last summer. But little did he know that Joe Burrow had his own revenge planned. Smith’s Alabama team routed Burrow’s LSU Tigers 29-0 in early November of 2018. It was the worst loss of Burrow’s LSU career, and Burrow has not only clearly faked an injury to return the favor, he has had Zac Taylor play an undrafted journeyman in Tanner Hudson over Smith in recent weeks. You should have picked the Dolphins, Irv.

Easton Stick better brush off the shoes he ran for 2,500 yards in at North Dakota State, so he can stay as far away from Tillery as possible.

New England Patriots

+8 vs. Chiefs

At best, you might call Patriots owner Robert Kraft leaking to the media that he intends to fire coach Bill Belichick at the end of the season “tacky.” But I would characterize it as recklessly self-sabotaging. Before the report, I would have split Belichick’s motivation pie evenly between shepherding a successful Patriots rebuild and passing Don Shula for the most wins by an NFL head coach. But now that he knows his six Super Bowl wins earned him a just five-year leash, Belichick is sure to be spiteful. You think he doesn’t hold grudges? This is the same man who has refused to say a word to his former defensive coordinator Eric Mangini since Mangini tattled on him for Spygate in 2007. Even after their Steelers upset last Sunday, the Patriots have the second-best odds for the No. 1 draft pick. Well, Kraft can kiss Caleb Williams, Drake Maye and Marvin Harrison goodbye. Belichick may not sleep the next four weeks if it will help him win out and leave his former team scraping for a Jimmy Garoppolo or Ryan Tannehill in free agency. The Chiefs need a win after their offsides fiasco against the Bills last week. But Belichick knows a thing or two about Chiefs offsides, and I expect the same result in Week 15 that the Patriots handed the Chiefs in their 2018 AFC title game. Give me the Patriots by 6.

Carolina Panthers

+3 vs. Falcons

I was ready to retire my Panthers Survivor pick meme — at least until David Tepper hires the 72-year-old Bill Belichick to a 20-year contract with full personnel control in the offseason. But, hey, it’s Week 15. We are down to the dregs of Eliminator options. And the Panthers host their division-rival Falcons that strike an unusual balance between technically being alive in the NFC South race and somehow using all three of their top 10 skill-player draft picks Bijan Robinson, Kyle Pitts, and Drake London as decoys to help Jonnu Smith and Mack Hollins get open. I haven’t seen a system this convoluted since I called Arthur Smith’s dad’s company FedEx and tried to talk to a live person about my missing Christmas shipment. The Panthers would be a hilarious Falcons spoiler and feather in your Survivor championship cap if they pulled out their second win of the season on Sunday. And while they certainly don’t have the offensive weapons to spur such a victory, the Panthers have at least one good defensive player in Derrick Brown. And at defensive tackle, Brown is well-positioned to stop Smith’s preferred play-call of a Tyler Allgeier run up the middle. Live a little and pick the Panthers for an upset.