Week 15 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Christian McCaffrey from EV Insight

Christian McCaffreyRushing Yards

Right now, Christian McCaffrey’s rushing yards prop is set at 88.5 yards (-145/+106).

The public has bet the OVER up to 88.5 (-145) after it opened @ 87.5 (-119).

Pros

This game’s spread indicates an extreme rushing game script for the 49ers, who are a huge favorite by 11.5 points.
Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the San Francisco 49ers to run on 45.1% of their downs: the 7th-highest frequency on the slate this week.
Our trusted projections expect Christian McCaffrey to garner 19.9 rush attempts this week, on balance, ranking him in the 97th percentile when it comes to running backs.
Christian McCaffrey’s 96.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this year represents an impressive improvement in his running talent over last year’s 68.0 mark.
The opposing side have rushed for the most adjusted yards in the NFL (146 per game) versus the Arizona Cardinals defense this year.

Cons

The model projects the 49ers to call the 3rd-fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.7 plays, given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
The San Francisco 49ers have called the fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging a measly 53.0 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Christian McCaffrey’s 83.3% snap rate this year signifies a noteworthy boost in his offensive volume over last year’s 71.5% mark.

Projection

THE BLITZ
97
Rushing Yards