Week 15 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Alvin Kamara from EV Insight

Alvin KamaraRushing Yards

Right now, Alvin Kamara’s rushing yards prop is set at 64.5 yards (-115/-115).

The public has bet the OVER up to 64.5 (-115) after it opened @ 58.5 (-115).

Pros

The Saints are a 5.5-point favorite in this week’s game, likely creating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects Alvin Kamara to accrue 16.0 rush attempts in this week’s contest, on average, ranking in the 86th percentile among RBs.
Alvin Kamara has garnered 56.7% of his team’s carries this year, ranking in the 89th percentile among RBs.
Opposing teams have rushed for the 8th-most yards in the league (134 per game) against the Atlanta Falcons defense this year.
The Atlanta Falcons safeties grade out as the 24th-worst unit in the league this year when it comes to defending the run.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Saints to run the 5th-least total plays on the slate this week with 62.6 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The New Orleans Saints have run the 9th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 55.3 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Alvin Kamara has rushed for many fewer yards per game (49.0) this year than he did last year (67.0).
Alvin Kamara’s rushing efficiency (3.77 yards per carry) has been some of the worst in football this year (21st percentile among RBs).

Projection

THE BLITZ
63
Rushing Yards