WNBA Best Bets (Wednesday 9/25)
Josh Gross
Kenneth Walker IIIRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 15
Seahawks vs. 49ers
Right now, Kenneth Walker III’s rushing yards prop is set at 50.5 yards (+102/-139).
The public has bet the OVER up to 50.5 (+102) after it opened @ 49.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Seattle Seahawks have been faced with a stacked the box on a measly 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
- The Seattle Seahawks have gone no-huddle on 15.5% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (4th-most in the league). This speeds up the pace, leading to more volume and stat production.
Cons
- The Seahawks are a 3.5-point underdog in this week’s game, indicating a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks as the 7th-least run-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 37.4% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Seahawks to call the 6th-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 62.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Seattle Seahawks have called the 3rd-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling just 53.8 plays per game.
- Opposing teams have rushed for the least yards in the NFL (just 75 per game) versus the San Francisco 49ers defense this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
75
Rushing Yards
75
Rushing Yards
