Week 15 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Zay Flowers from EV Insight

Zay FlowersReceiving Yards

Right now, Zay Flowers’s receiving yards prop is set at 49.5 yards (-141/+108).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 49.5 (+108) after it opened @ 55.5 (-113).

Pros

Opposing offenses have averaged 39.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars defense this year: 4th-most in the NFL.
Zay Flowers has run a route on 93.3% of his team’s passing plays this year, ranking him in the 93rd percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
In this contest, Zay Flowers is projected by the predictive model to place in the 84th percentile among WRs with 7.5 targets.
Zay Flowers has been responsible for a whopping 23.6% of his team’s air yards this year: 77th percentile among wideouts.
Zay Flowers grades out as one of the best possession receivers in the league, hauling in an impressive 74.9% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, grading out in the 91st percentile among WRs.

Cons

The Ravens are a 4-point favorite in this game, likely creating a rushing game script.
The predictive model expects the Baltimore Ravens as the 3rd-least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 50.2% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Right now, the 4th-most sluggish paced team in football (context-neutralized) according to the model is the Baltimore Ravens.
When it comes to cornerbacks in defending receivers, Jacksonville’s collection of CBs has been phenomenal this year, ranking as the 7th-best in the NFL.

Projection

THE BLITZ
52
Receiving Yards