NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Wan’Dale RobinsonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 15
Saints vs. Giants
Right now, Wan’Dale Robinson’s receiving yards prop is set at 32.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the OVER up to 32.5 (-115) after it opened @ 29.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Giants are a 6.5-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script.
- Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Giants are expected by our trusted projection set to run 66.7 offensive plays in this game: the 4th-most among all teams this week.
- The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still “weather” conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may fall-off.
- In this week’s contest, Wan’Dale Robinson is expected by the projection model to finish in the 76th percentile among wideouts with 6.5 targets.
- Wan’Dale Robinson’s sure-handedness have been refined this year, with his Adjusted Catch Rate increasing from 77.9% to 81.8%.
Cons
- With a 58.6% rate of throwing the ball (adjusted for context) this year, the 7th-least pass-oriented offense in the NFL has been the Giants.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 34.4 pass attempts per game vs. the New Orleans Saints defense this year: 9th-fewest in the NFL.
- After accruing 30.0 air yards per game last year, Wan’Dale Robinson has produced significantly fewer this year, now sitting at 22.0 per game.
- The New York Giants O-line grades out as the worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a harmful impact on all pass game metrics across the board.
- With a poor 7.3 adjusted yards per target (23rd percentile) this year, Wan’Dale Robinson rates as one of the worst WRs in the league in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
43
Receiving Yards
43
Receiving Yards
