Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Tyler HigbeeReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 15
Packers vs. Rams
Right now, Tyler Higbee’s receiving yards prop is set at 25.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 25.5 (-110) after it opened @ 32.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Los Angeles Rams will be rolling out backup QB Baker Mayfield in this week’s game, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
- The Rams are a 6.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, which points towards a passing game script.
- The weatherman calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- THE BLITZ projects Tyler Higbee to notch 5.8 targets in this contest, on average, ranking in the 92nd percentile among tight ends.
- Tyler Higbee has been among the best tight ends in the pass game this year, averaging a terrific 36.0 yards per game while ranking in the 86th percentile.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Rams as the 6th-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 58.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Rams to call the least offensive plays on the slate this week with 60.5 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Los Angeles Rams have run the least plays in the league this year, totaling a mere 55.9 plays per game.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 30.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Green Bay Packers defense this year: least in the league.
- Tyler Higbee has been used less as a potential pass-catcher this season (69.8% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (85.1%).
Projection
THE BLITZ
33
Receiving Yards
33
Receiving Yards
