Week 15 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Tyler Higbee from EV Insight

Tyler HigbeeReceiving Yards

Right now, Tyler Higbee’s receiving yards prop is set at 25.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 25.5 (-110) after it opened @ 32.5 (-114).

Pros

The Los Angeles Rams will be rolling out backup QB Baker Mayfield in this week’s game, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
The Rams are a 6.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, which points towards a passing game script.
The weatherman calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Tyler Higbee to notch 5.8 targets in this contest, on average, ranking in the 92nd percentile among tight ends.
Tyler Higbee has been among the best tight ends in the pass game this year, averaging a terrific 36.0 yards per game while ranking in the 86th percentile.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Rams as the 6th-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 58.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Rams to call the least offensive plays on the slate this week with 60.5 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Los Angeles Rams have run the least plays in the league this year, totaling a mere 55.9 plays per game.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 30.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Green Bay Packers defense this year: least in the league.
Tyler Higbee has been used less as a potential pass-catcher this season (69.8% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (85.1%).

Projection

THE BLITZ
33
Receiving Yards