Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Tyler ConklinReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 15
Dolphins vs. Jets
Right now, Tyler Conklin’s receiving yards prop is set at 24.5 yards (-117/-112).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 24.5 (-112) after it opened @ 28.5 (-114).
Pros
- An extreme throwing game script is indicated by the Jets being a huge -7-point underdog in this game.
- Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Jets to pass on 60.9% of their plays: the 7th-greatest rate on the slate this week.
- The predictive model expects Tyler Conklin to earn 5.0 targets in this week’s contest, on balance, placing him in the 81st percentile among tight ends.
- Tyler Conklin profiles as one of the top TE receiving threats this year, averaging an excellent 38.0 adjusted yards per game while grading out in the 79th percentile.
- The Dolphins defense has allowed the 7th-most adjusted receiving yards per game in the league (53.0) versus TEs this year.
Cons
- Based on their underlying play style and game dynamics, the New York Jets are predicted by the projection model to run only 63.3 total plays in this game: the 5th-fewest among all teams this week.
- The 7th-fewest plays in the NFL have been run by the New York Jets this year (only 55.9 per game on average).
- In regards to protecting the quarterback (and the ramifications it has on all air attack statistics), the O-line of the New York Jets grades out as the 2nd-worst in the NFL this year.
- The Dolphins safeties profile as the 3rd-best collection of safeties in the league this year in defending pass-catchers.
Projection
THE BLITZ
33
Receiving Yards
33
Receiving Yards
