Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Welcome to Hoops with Noops! It should be a TNT Thursday night, but the NBA is afraid of the Thursday night NFL game. I know people are excited to see the Las Vegas Raiders’ third-string quarterback and the Los Angeles Charges’ second-stringer who is named after a hockey stick, but I and others would happily flip on TNT to watch any of the seven games we have on the slate.
This has happened for years, and I know the NFL is the king of ratings, but if no one every challenges the king do we really know if they deserve to rule? Just once, I’d like the NBA to schedule some marquee matchups Thursday night and really test the NFL’s dominance. But, alas, we’ll have to rely on league pass and NBA TV. As for the actual basketball, there is a lot of uncertainty with injury management back and the indefinite suspension of Draymond Green looming, but the games will be competitive, and we’ll learn a lot about some new lineups. Let’s dive into the games, see what we might able to expect on the court, and how we can extract value from the betting markets.
NBA Best Bets for Thursday
Oklahoma City Thunder at Sacramento Kings
Current Line – Kings -1.5, 244
My Projection – Thunder 123, Kings 120
Key Injuries – None
My model has the Thunder favored, and I couldn’t love the matchup for Oklahoma City more. In fact, I’m a little worried I’m missing something because this line hasn’t moved since opening Wednesday night, which means the market, for now, thinks it’s where it should be. Of course, limits are still low, and you tend to see sharp money flow into the market once sportsbooks increase the size of the allowable bet. Perhaps the market will flip the favorite later, but for now I’ll happily back the Thunder. Oklahoma City closed as two-point favorites in Sacramento about a month ago, and there were no keys players missing or lack of rest for either squad. The Kings did win that game and have been playing better basketball, but I still don’t think they deserve to be favorites even at home. Sacramento was able to win the extra possession battle (offensive rebounds+turnovers) by 10 and were able to keep the Thunder’s 3-point shooting percentage down to 23%. It could happen again, but that’s an outlier performance to say the least. The Thunder have the best 3-point percent in the league at 39.1%, one of the lowest turnover rates, and the lowest opponent offensive rebounding rate. The matchup couldn’t be any better for them. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is a better version of De’Aaron Fox, Josh Giddey is a better version of Kevin Heurter, and Jalen Williams and Luguentz Dort can easily lock down Harrison Barnes and Keegan Murray. Domantas Sabonis is faster and a better passer than Chet Holmgren, but Chet is several inches taller with a long reach and can just shoot over Sabonis. Everything screams OKC to me, so I’m going to bet them to win the game.
Bet
Oklahoma City Thunder ML (+110, BetMGM or FanDuel Sportsbook)
Not For Noops
Games I’m not betting and why I’m not betting them.
Cleveland Cavaliers at Boston Celtics -9, 226
Evan Mobley is out, which is why Cleveland is such a big underdog. The Cavaliers are a markedly different squad when they have all four of Donovan Mitchell, Darius Garland, Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley. When even one of them is missing, their results are much worse. Jaylen Brown is questionable for the Celtics which is why this line is two points short of the closing spread from Tuesday. My projections come out close to the market pricing, so I’m going to pass on this game. If you really must bet something, I do have the total almost 2 points higher than the market, so a bet on the over isn’t the worst idea, but it’s not a big enough edge for me to play.
Chicago Bulls at Miami Heat -4, 216
These prices matched my model almost exactly. The Bulls have been played better without Zach LaVine, but unless they have a scheduling advantage, they still haven’t been able to beat good teams. The Heat are struggling with injury problems, but Jimmy Butler is healthy and so are plenty of other good players. This is another game where I think there might be a little value on the over, but not enough for me to make that bet. Nothing on this game.
Minnesota Timberwolves at Dallas Mavericks -1.5, 231
I will be sprinting to my computer to bet on Minnesota at -2 or better if Anthony Edwards is playing. He did practice Wednesday but is still listed as questionable and hip injuries can be rough. Luka Doncic has played a ton of minutes in his last few games and if fatigue hasn’t set in already, it’s coming. Dallas is missing Kyrie Irving, Seth Curry, and Josh Green. Also, Tim Hardaway and Derrick Jones are listed questionable. It’s a great spot to fade the Mavericks, but we have to wait. I’ll put any bets I add into the FTNBets Discord #nba-plays channel if Edwards is playing.
Brooklyn Nets at Denver Nuggets -9.5, 229.5
The Nets played in Phoenix Wednesday, and heading to the altitude of Denver is a nightmare for a team playing their second game in two nights. Despite all that, I was close to taking Brooklyn. The Nuggets are back to winning games, but not comfortably. Nikola Jokic seems to be past his shooting slump, but the team looks to be struggling with their constantly changing lineups. It’s hard for a team play to play as one unit that outperforms the sum of its parts if the parts are constantly changing. I don’t have a bet on the Nets, but I don’t like betting on teams on bad travel spots and I don’t have a good grasp on the Nuggets. I’m passing on this game.
Utah Jazz and Portland Trail Blazers -3.5, 226
Speaking of teams I don’t have a good feel for, may I present to you the Utah Jazz and the Portland Trail Blazers. The Jazz played Wednesday and were able to win even though they were working back in a few starters who returned from long injury layoffs. They go to Portland Thursday to face a rest Trail Blazers squad that is also trying to reintegrate injured players. The lineups have very few minutes played together, and it’s hard to know what to expect. That kind of uncertainty can create opportunities to find value because even the efficient NBA betting markets can struggle to project these types of games. If you have a strong angle based on matchup, I wouldn’t shy away from it, but I don’t have anything like that, so I am passing on betting this game.
Golden State Warriors at Los Angeles Clippers -5.5, 230.5
I didn’t plan on stacking up all this uncertainty, but here we are again. Draymond Green is suspended indefinitely after yet another “accidental/unintentional” fist to an opponent’s head. Expect the Warriors to be worse on defense, but also on offense. Green is a skillful passer and one of the best screeners in the league. He allows Stephen Curry to thrive off the ball cutting and moving to find space for open 3-pointers. Sometimes teams play above their level in the first game without an important star, but it’s hard to expect that. The Clippers are on a five-game win streak and look like they’ve gotten comfortable playing together. Los Angeles might be a point or two too big of a favorite, but that’s certainly not enough to back a Warriors team dealing with turmoil.
