Week 15 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Tyler Conklin from EV Insight

Tyler ConklinReceiving Yards

Right now, Tyler Conklin’s receiving yards prop is set at 24.5 yards (-117/-112).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 24.5 (-112) after it opened @ 28.5 (-114).

Pros

An extreme throwing game script is indicated by the Jets being a huge -7-point underdog in this game.
Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Jets to pass on 60.9% of their plays: the 7th-greatest rate on the slate this week.
The predictive model expects Tyler Conklin to earn 5.0 targets in this week’s contest, on balance, placing him in the 81st percentile among tight ends.
Tyler Conklin profiles as one of the top TE receiving threats this year, averaging an excellent 38.0 adjusted yards per game while grading out in the 79th percentile.
The Dolphins defense has allowed the 7th-most adjusted receiving yards per game in the league (53.0) versus TEs this year.

Cons

Based on their underlying play style and game dynamics, the New York Jets are predicted by the projection model to run only 63.3 total plays in this game: the 5th-fewest among all teams this week.
The 7th-fewest plays in the NFL have been run by the New York Jets this year (only 55.9 per game on average).
In regards to protecting the quarterback (and the ramifications it has on all air attack statistics), the O-line of the New York Jets grades out as the 2nd-worst in the NFL this year.
The Dolphins safeties profile as the 3rd-best collection of safeties in the league this year in defending pass-catchers.

Projection

THE BLITZ
33
Receiving Yards