Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Terry McLaurinReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 15
Commanders vs. Giants
Right now, Terry McLaurin’s receiving yards prop is set at 60.5 yards (-106/-129).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 60.5 (-129) after it opened @ 61.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects Terry McLaurin to total 8.3 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 88th percentile among wide receivers.
- THE BLITZ projects Terry McLaurin to be much more involved in his offense’s pass attack this week (29.0% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (23.2% in games he has played).
- Terry McLaurin has been among the top wide receivers in the game this year, averaging a stellar 70.0 yards per game while checking in at the 91st percentile.
- Terry McLaurin’s receiving reliability have been refined this year, with his Completion% increasing from 61.8% to 67.0%.
- Terry McLaurin’s pass-catching effectiveness has gotten better this season, compiling 9.81 yards-per-target compared to a mere 8.61 rate last season.
Cons
- The Commanders are a 4.5-point favorite in this game, likely creating a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders to be the 5th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 50.4% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders offense to be the 7th-worst paced team in the league (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 29.22 seconds per play.
- Opposing teams have averaged 33.9 pass attempts per game against the New York Giants defense this year: 8th-least in the NFL.
- Terry McLaurin has accrued significantly fewer air yards this year (95.0 per game) than he did last year (103.0 per game).
Projection
THE BLITZ
67
Receiving Yards
67
Receiving Yards
