Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Robert TonyanReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 15
Packers vs. Rams
Right now, Robert Tonyan’s receiving yards prop is set at 22.5 yards (+102/-139).
The public has bet the OVER up to 22.5 (+102) after it opened @ 20.5 (-114).
Pros
- The weatherman calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- THE BLITZ projects Robert Tonyan to earn 3.9 targets in this week’s contest, on average, placing him in the 79th percentile among tight ends.
- Robert Tonyan has been a key part of his team’s passing offense, garnering a Target Share of 13.5% this year, which ranks him in the 84th percentile among tight ends.
- The Green Bay Packers offensive line profiles as the 5th-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a positive effect on all passing offense metrics across the board.
- Robert Tonyan has been among the best TE receiving threats this year, averaging a stellar 30.0 yards per game while ranking in the 77th percentile.
Cons
- The Packers are a 6.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers as the least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 55.9% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 122.4 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Robert Tonyan’s pass-game effectiveness has tailed off this season, compiling a mere 7.14 yards-per-target vs a 8.75 mark last season.
- The Los Angeles Rams pass defense has allowed the 8th-lowest Completion% in the league (67.9%) versus tight ends this year (67.9%).
Projection
THE BLITZ
27
Receiving Yards
27
Receiving Yards
