Week 15 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Pat Freiermuth from EV Insight

Pat FreiermuthReceiving Yards

Right now, Pat Freiermuth’s receiving yards prop is set at 30.5 yards (-115/-115).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 30.5 (-115) after it opened @ 35.5 (-125).

Pros

The passing attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still “weather” conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may slide.
The projections expect Pat Freiermuth to total 6.1 targets in this week’s contest, on balance, ranking him in the 94th percentile among tight ends.
The Colts defense has yielded the 3rd-most adjusted receiving yards per game in football (62.0) versus tight ends this year.

Cons

The predictive model expects the Pittsburgh Steelers offense to be the 10th-slowest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 28.41 seconds per snap.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 33.2 pass attempts per game versus the Indianapolis Colts defense this year: 6th-fewest in the NFL.
Pat Freiermuth has compiled quite a few less air yards this season (34.0 per game) than he did last season (50.0 per game).
Pat Freiermuth’s 32.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that weighs high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly worse this year than it was last year at 41.2.
Pat Freiermuth’s 30.0 adjusted yards per game on passes this season conveys a significant drop-off in his pass-catching proficiency over last season’s 49.0 rate.

Projection

THE BLITZ
43
Receiving Yards