Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Mitchell WilcoxReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 15
Buccaneers vs. Bengals
Right now, Mitchell Wilcox’s receiving yards prop is set at 17.5 yards (+102/-139).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 17.5 (-139) after it opened @ 18.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 10th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 62.0% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Bengals to run the 3rd-most total plays on the slate this week with 68.2 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Mitchell Wilcox to be a more integral piece of his team’s passing attack this week (7.3% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (2.1% in games he has played).
- Mitchell Wilcox has been among the best possession receivers in the NFL among tight ends, hauling in an impressive 86.7% of balls thrown his way this year, ranking in the 84th percentile.
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has allowed the 8th-highest Completion% in the NFL (75.8%) to tight ends this year (75.8%).
Cons
- The Bengals are a 3.5-point favorite in this game, which points towards a rushing game script.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 34.4 pass attempts per game versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense this year: 10th-least in the league.
- Mitchell Wilcox has accrued a paltry 3.0 air yards per game this year: just 18th percentile among TEs.
- Mitchell Wilcox has been among the weakest TE receiving threats this year, averaging a mere 10.0 yards per game while checking in at the 10th percentile among TEs.
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense has conceded the 9th-least receiving yards per game in football (just 41.0) to tight ends this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
17
Receiving Yards
17
Receiving Yards
