NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Mike EvansReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 15
Packers vs. Buccaneers
Right now, Mike Evans’s receiving yards prop is set at 70.5 yards (-120/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 70.5 (-120) after it opened @ 70.5 (-115).
Pros
- This week’s line suggests a passing game script for the Buccaneers, who are -3.5-point underdogs.
- In this week’s game, Mike Evans is projected by the projection model to find himself in the 91st percentile among wideouts with 8.4 targets.
- After accumulating 117.0 air yards per game last year, Mike Evans has seen a big uptick this year, now pacing 130.0 per game.
- Mike Evans’s 70.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that weighs high-value offensive involvement) has been notably higher this season than it was last season at 55.0.
- With a terrific 69.0 adjusted receiving yards per game (90th percentile) this year, Mike Evans ranks among the leading wide receivers in the game in the league.
Cons
- Our trusted projections expect the Buccaneers to run the 6th-fewest total plays on the slate this week with 63.4 plays, accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 33.7 pass attempts per game vs. the Green Bay Packers defense this year: 8th-fewest in the league.
- Mike Evans’s 58.0% Adjusted Completion% this year marks a noteable decline in his receiving skills over last year’s 61.0% rate.
- The Packers defense has given up the 10th-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in the league (just 145.0) versus wideouts this year.
- When it comes to cornerbacks in defending receivers, Green Bay’s unit has been terrific this year, ranking as the 10th-best in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
67
Receiving Yards
67
Receiving Yards
