Week 15 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Mike Evans

Mike EvansReceiving Yards

Right now, Mike Evans’s receiving yards prop is set at 70.5 yards (-120/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 70.5 (-120) after it opened @ 70.5 (-115).

Pros

This week’s line suggests a passing game script for the Buccaneers, who are -3.5-point underdogs.
In this week’s game, Mike Evans is projected by the projection model to find himself in the 91st percentile among wideouts with 8.4 targets.
After accumulating 117.0 air yards per game last year, Mike Evans has seen a big uptick this year, now pacing 130.0 per game.
Mike Evans’s 70.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that weighs high-value offensive involvement) has been notably higher this season than it was last season at 55.0.
With a terrific 69.0 adjusted receiving yards per game (90th percentile) this year, Mike Evans ranks among the leading wide receivers in the game in the league.

Cons

Our trusted projections expect the Buccaneers to run the 6th-fewest total plays on the slate this week with 63.4 plays, accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 33.7 pass attempts per game vs. the Green Bay Packers defense this year: 8th-fewest in the league.
Mike Evans’s 58.0% Adjusted Completion% this year marks a noteable decline in his receiving skills over last year’s 61.0% rate.
The Packers defense has given up the 10th-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in the league (just 145.0) versus wideouts this year.
When it comes to cornerbacks in defending receivers, Green Bay’s unit has been terrific this year, ranking as the 10th-best in football.

Projection

THE BLITZ
67
Receiving Yards